On the Saturday morning of the Eurovision Song Contest Grand Final, we see that the voting order is released for the satellite links to each country to read out their scores. In theory, this is based on an algorithm which means that the Song Contest voting will be as exciting as possible for people at home, with the algorithm knowing how the juries voted in the Jury Final the day before.
However, based on previous trends of voting patterns, and through knowledge of who is on the juries, we’re going to take you through what we expect the voting journey will be like tonight. Ben Robertson reports.
The First Ten
Montenegro, Malta, Finland, Greece, Portugal, Romania, Belarus, Albania, Moldova, Azerbaijan
On first glance this appears to be a jury spread which will give voting preferences to the Eastern European countries. Montenegro last year in the Contest had a jury which had very strong collusion rates and voted for Armenia, and Malta has awarded Azerbaijan twelve points in four of the last five years. Further Eastern looking countries here include Portugal (often a strong Ukrainian bias, could that switch this year?), Belarus (to Russia), Moldova (to Romania) and Azerbaijan (to Russia). Greece also gave Russia a very high jury score last year (3rd place, 2nd overall).
From that first jury of Montenegro, if anything comes in for countries like Sweden, Belgium or Latvia it could be a very good night for them.
If Russia is not in the lead after these first ten votes then do not expect Sochi or St. Petersburg for 2015. It’s a well sung power ballad likely to appeal to tastes of countries in this mix, especially Malta and Albania, and it would be convenient from a TV perspective if Russia took an early lead to make it exciting. Look out for Italy here too, Albanian TV shows Sanremo so an Italian top score would be expected, but countries like Belarus have very little voting relationship with Italy (in their Junior Eurovision victory last year, Belarus’ jury had Vincenzo in 6th, with televoting in 8th) so if Italy gets anything from Minsk it could be a good night for Il Volo.
Russia’s Polina Gagarina would be the expected leader in the early stages of the voting
The Second Ten
Latvia, Serbia, Estonia, Denmark, Switzerland, Belgium, France, Armenia, Ireland, Sweden
Expect little love to be given to Russia from the Baltic nations in this section, where last year the jury scores marked Russia in the bottom five from both Latvia and Estonia, and little politically will have changed this situation. If ‘A Million Voices’ scores more than 3 or 4 points from any of these it could be a very good night for Russia.
In this run here we get a lot of traditional western nations, and I expect Sweden would be in the lead by the time we go to Stockholm for the results from spokesperson Mariette. France has Bruno Berberes as the jury Chairperson, who not only awarded Måns 12 points in Melodifestivalen this year he has also been a big supporter of Christer Björkman and the Swedish selection process. Armenia may also be Swedish friendly this year after appearing as an International Jury in Melodifestivalen for the first time (12 again to Måns). The Belgian, French and Irish juries all feature at least one young (under 30, for Eurovision Jury terms) singer who may appreciate the style of the Swedish pop selection.
If points here are going elsewhere, that would be a bad sign for Sweden. If insteada Belgium does well at this point, or an Italy, Stockholm may be ruling itself out of contention.
If Il Volo are still in the mix when Sweden votes they could very well take the lead later on.
The Third Ten
Germany, Australia, Czech Republic, Spain, Austria, Macedonia, Slovenia, Hungary, United Kingdom, Georgia
The first few countries here can be grouped in the same section as the previous group. Through the Ice Hockey World Championships ‘Heroes’ has been getting Czech airplay in a country with little Eurovision culture, and Australian TV has used the Swedish song through their own broadcasts. The back half of this though offers little obvious pattern.
Macedonia, Slovenia and Hungary offer an alternative view. Hungary’s jury is heavily made up of singer-songwriters, so I’d argue with the Finno-Ugric bloc a factor in voting if Estonia does not do well from Budapest it is out of the running. One could also make a case here for a Latvian surge, with lots of young jury members featuring in particular from Slovenia. There could also be an Italian run kicking in from Spain (lots of power vocalists on their jury), and if an Aussie buzz exists one would anticipate the UK being involved.
This is likely to be where the winner comes from if it is still close. Following the odds we have to assume Sweden is in the lead at this point, but the votes in this section and probably crucial to where the Contest will be held this year, with lots of potential jury links. If any of these patterns join up this could be a strange yet decisive part of the voting.
If Guy Sebastian does well tonight would the UK be the country to support him?
Photo: Derek Sillerud
The Final Ten
Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Israel, Russia, San Marino, Italy, Iceland, Cyprus, Norway
Some commentators have noticed that with both Russia and Italy in this final section, this could mean they are the ones to watch out for. I would hold up some caution to that theory, but Sweden announced 27th in 2012, Denmark 31st in 2013, Austria 30th in 2014. Italy though won the jury vote in 2011 by a landslide and voted 4th (as Italy was one of the few not to mark Blue really low that year). I think it more matters where the points are going to rather than if you are in the mix for this purpose.
A Georgia, Lithuania run could be mutually beneficial, or they could perhaps help to cement a Latvia or Estonia coming through the ranks. Big points for Russia here would signal a big shift in the Contest back towards the eastern giant.
Israel and Poland are likely to be Swede-friendly, but the question will be if it can hold on enough. The final three in theory could be supporting ‘Heroes’ – Klitos Klitou gave Måns twelve points in Melodifestivalen, and Norway and Iceland are likely to cast points Sweden’s way, but hold caution to some jury members here. In particular Iceland’s jury having a Pollapönk member on it could throw in a complete wildcard here, and Margaret Berger similarities with Aminata are very easy to make.
The fate of Eurovision might be in the hand of Norway’s Ice Queen Photo: Thomas Hanses/EBU
Our Conclusions
Based on the previous two years we would expect to see a winner break out from the pack after the halfway point in the voting. This year we are less certain. Based on expectations we would expect a jump for favourite Sweden before this point in the order, which might make it liable to drop back in the running later on in the evening if they are making it exciting. I would argue that the only country that could landslide victory based on this order though is Sweden, knowing how early some of the Western countries are grouping up in the voting order. However expected a Swedish win is in the Eurovision world a 300-point whitewash is not, so I urge lots of caution with this theory.
Måns has been the favourite to win Eurovision ever since he was selected in March, and odds on him winning have shortened throughout the day
Their isn’t necessarily an obvious challenger in the later stages, some argument could be made for countries like Italy, Latvia or Estonia to have a late surge for the title, but that is far from clear which direction votes may travel. However there certainly is some elbow room for somebody to push back to the top spots at the end here.
If it does come down to a close contest in the final few votes, Sweden would be the expectation based on the predicted televoting support it would get, but it certainly would not be a given looking at the make-up of jury voters. We could instead be having lots of fingernail biting going on…
Largely agree with your analysis. I reckon Italy will take an early lead – 3 of the first 5 countries gave 10 points to Italy in 2011, and I expect Montenegro would appreciate Il Volo as well. And then, if Russia is to take the lead at any point, it’ll be shortly after that.
I’m expecting Sweden to lead from around 12th jury onwards – but it would be nice if they’ve managed to keep all the contenders close for a lot longer than usual. Here’s hoping for an exciting night!
It’s obviously set up for a Swedish win probably by some distance hence for example Norway at the end (…and finally 12 points go to Sweden (shocker))
Why even announce the jury order when it can only then be one or two countries who win?
The only thing I usually can conclude, based on the exact scoregrid of only 100% juries last year, is this:
The EBU divides the voting in roughly three parts. With 100% juries last year the scores would have looked like this:
–> Part 1 (first 12 juries):
57 points: ARMENIA
52 points: AUSTRIA
49 points: HUNGARY
48 points: SWEDEN
46 points: THE NETHERLANDS
44 points: MALTA
–> Part 2 (after 24 juries):
133 points: THE NETHERLANDS (sudden huge rise in points)
113 points: SWEDEN (also moved up to 2nd)
110 points: AUSTRIA
107 points: HUNGARY
091 points: ARMENIA
090 points: MALTA
–> Part 3 (after 36 juries, Georgia jury eliminated):
214 points: AUSTRIA (now Austria started to surge)
200 points: THE NETHERLANDS
199 points: SWEDEN
138 points: HUNGARY
119 points: MALTA
114 points: FINLAND (sudden increase in the 3rd half)
What can we conclude on this? That we really need to see that running order in the light of pure 100% jury results. BUTTT once the televoting is included, the overall “effect” of making the voting tense and exciting is already gone.
Because last year, in the mixed (50% televoting, 50% jury) official result, Netherlands could not overtake Austria at all during the 2nd of 3 parts of the voting.
On top of that, thanks to the 50% televoting, the surge for the eventual winner Austria kicked in way sooner. Also, other small surges, like the one from Finland at the end, and a very good start for Armenia, were erased by the televotes. So on average this appointed voting order is complete nonsense. You simply can’t “read” from it which countries will do well and which ones not.
So take the voting order with a grain of salt. Most likely, the eventual winner will surge already quite early, thanks to the televotes, making the impact of this appointed running order draw rather pointless.
Leaves me with another remark: The current voting procedure really needs to be changed, to retain some of the tense fun and excitement. Tonight I expect a rather dull voting. And IF for whatever reason the voting really is tense? THEN that is pure statistical luck.
So…. Just as predicted. They should keep the voting order a secret, it so spoiled th show knowing how it was going to go. And the crowd were dreadful booing a clearly fragile, upset young woman who had sung her heart out for them, yet cheering on an arrogant homophobe with his rip off mediocre song.
I agree they should not reveal the voting order beforehand. What’s the purpose anyway? To give betters a last hint? All it does it ruin the excitement because this was very clearly set up for a Swedish win. I really regretted reading the order in the first place because it put me in a bad mood (I did not want Sweden to win), but at least it also made me relaxed when Russia was leading because i “knew” it wouldn’t keep the lead. I wanted Russia to win even less than Sweden.
But why, why do they have to announce the order at all?!
Pretty good analysis. This time next year I will be hanging on your every word. The algorithm has yet to produce a moment is remotely as exciting as 1988, 1969, 1968, 1991, 1993, 2003. All years when the performing/voting draw was randomly chosen.