To be fair, the ‘professional’ gamblers have been trading bets on this year’s Eurovision Song Contest since November last year, but for those of you who like a flutter, John Lucas takes a look at the betting field for the 2015 Contest.
After the rush of national finals and song selections that dominates February and March, April can feel like a bit of a lull in the Eurovision season. Sure, there’s always the chance that a game-changing remix may sneak out, but on the whole we’ve heard everything we’re going to hear and if you’re only focusing on the songs, it’s a long month until the rehearsals start.
The flip side of this quiet period is that for the savvy fan, it’s an excellent time to take a look at the betting markets. With all entries announced, a handful of clear favourites will usually emerge – but there will also be those less fancied songs that only gain momentum when they reach the Eurovision stage. So if you want to pick up some attractive odds on a potential dark horse, now might be the best time to place your bets (just be smart about it, and gamble responsibly with money you can afford to lose).
Early Favourites
At time of writing, the bookies clear favourite for victory is Sweden with ‘Heroes’. The best odds of 7/4 would return £27.50 on a £10 bet for outright victory.
Sweden is a nice, stable choice for a conservative bet because at this stage there aren’t many real question marks around their performance. There’s no reason to expect them to significantly overhaul the song, Måns is a reliable performer, and although a plagiarism claim has necessitated some changes to the animation, on the whole the staging concept should stick fairly closely to what we saw at Melodifestivalen. If they’re not still the favourites on finals night, it’ll most likely be through somebody else shining brighter, rather than Sweden dropping the ball.
Just below Sweden we find Italy (best odds 5/1) and Estonia (15/2). These songs were both early fan favourites that remain highly popular but have been slightly overshadowed by Sweden. However, there’s a lot that could go wrong with either performance; Italy could go the way of every other Opera-flavoured Eurovision entry of recent years, and Estonia’s understated performance could be lost in an early draw or overshadowed by one of the many other duets this year.
This really happened…
Rounding out the top five are the slightly more questionable Slovenia (16/1) and Australia (18/1). Of the two, I’d be more inclined to put money on Australia, who arrive with a built-in novelty factor that every viewer is likely to have an opinion on, plus a solid song and a talented, likeable performer. Slovenia have their best odds in years here, but while the song is catchy as crabs, it feels like it’s missing something unique and memorable to clearly distinguish it from the pack.
Speaking of songs everyone will have an opinion on, the widespread media attention lavished on Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät saw Finland rapidly emerge as a frontrunner, although they’ve since drifted down to 6th with best odds of 16/1. While I expect the song to do quite well, it doesn’t have the melody or showmanship of – to make an obvious comparison – Lordi, and feels more like a curio than a potential winner, especially in the jury era.
Dark Horses
This time last year, you could have made a tidy sum on Austria, who languished at 13th in the betting with odds as long as 50/1. An each-way bet on The Netherlands – way out at 150/1 – would also have proven highly lucrative. The reason these songs took so long to gain momentum is that they only really came alive at the rehearsal stage.
The Common Linnets, Netherlands 2014 (picture: espective Broadcasters/EBU)
One song that instantly jumps out to me as being potentially undervalued is Belgium, currently available for 50/1. It’s a big, modern pop song with a towering chorus, and we’ve already heard him do a good job of delivering it in a live setting. If somebody ends up doing Lena this year, it could well be Loic Nottet.
Two songs that I don’t think are particularly likely to win but could be good value for an each-way bet are Spain (66/1) and Cyprus (80/1). The Spanish song is highly atmospheric, and if they do a good job of translating the ‘dawn’ theme from the lyrics and promo video into the stage show, it could be a really eye-catching performance. Cyprus is a gentle ballad with a quietly impressive vocal performance and a sense of intimacy that may work in its favour against the bigger performances of the evening – remember Tom Dice?
The Outsiders
Right down at the bottom of the betting odds we find some familiar faces. Perennial underdogs Portugal and San Marino have the longest odds of 250/1 and 200/1 respectively, alongside a returning Czech Republic (also 200/1). I wouldn’t totally dismiss any of them from a place in the finals, but none of them are top ten material. Nor are Switzerland (125/1) and Moldova (150/1), who sit just above them.
Somewhat surprisingly, Poland and Hungary are also in the bottom ten. Some bookies offer odds on a top ten placing, and I think these two are good candidates. Poland have a classy if slightly languid ballad that could be catnip for the juries, and the fact that singer Monika Kuszyńska is wheelchair bound should stick in the viewers’ minds. Top four is probably a stretch, but given the length of her odds a small each-way bet might not be a complete waste of money.
Hungary’s peace anthem is listless on record but really came alive during her performances at their national selection, and the anti-war message of the song could very well pick up a protest vote, particularly given how likely it is to resonate with countries under the shadow of Russia.
Is music like this written to show off any vocal capacity?
Finally, two other outsiders who might be worth keeping an eye on are Romania and Montenegro. Romania can never be discounted from a high placing, and it’s one of the few band numbers this year, with a positive message that should resonate strongly with their diaspora.
Montenegro may never have climbed higher than 18th in the past, but their entry is written by Željko Joksimović, whose four previous entries all comfortably landed in the top ten of their respective years. If you have faith in his way with a brooding Balkan ballad, there could be some value here too.
What do you make of this year’s betting market? Which entries are being overlooked – and which of the early favourites do you think are being overrated? Let us know who you’ll be putting your money on – literally or figuratively – in the comments section below.
I think a dark horse this year will be Russia, still available at 25-1 whilst a reasonable e/w might be Lithuania at 125-1, a fun upbeat number amongst all the ballads!
Great article! Thanks!
Looking at the odds, I’d say Latvia and Macedonia could be the wild horses this year. On the other hand, Estonia may be ‘Kate Ryan’ of 2015.
Have just had my first look at this year’s contenders and one song stands out a mile for me…Norway. Absolutely gorgeous! My each-way money is on at 20/1.