After ORF met and discussed Eurovision’s Semi Final running order on the weekend, today the EBU rubber-stamped the list and published the running order for each song in the Semi Finals. These are as follows:
Semi Final One: Moldova, Armenia, Belgium, The Netherlands, Finland, Greece, Estonia, FYR Macedonia, Serbia, Hungary, Belarus, Russia, Denmark, Albania, Romania, Georgia
Semi Final Two: Lithuania, Ireland, San Marino, Montenegro, Malta, Norway, Portugal, Czech Republic, Israel, Latvia, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Sweden, Switzerland, Cyprus, Slovenia, Poland
Note that the countries were already selected into top half and bottom half draw position in an earlier draw, and the advert breaks will be after the 5th and 12th songs respectively.
In this article we will look at what to make from the running order that ORF have decided upon, and pick out a few of the entries we believe may benefit or lose out in their quest to qualify to the Grand Final.
A Change From The Scandinavian Style
This is the third year in Eurovision that the running order has been producer-led, as in chosen by the production team for the show rather than a random ballot. The previous two years have been hosted by SVT in Sweden and DR in Denmark with them producing their version of a running order which then had to be approved by the EBU before publication. Austria’s victory meant that this year we can look to see if the model of a Eurovision show is different away from Scandinavia’s well-oiled system.
Conchita performed 6th in the Semi Final last year, as well as 11th in the Grand Final (Photo: Ewan Spence)
On first glance there is little in the running order out of the ordinary based on previous Contests. We have the up-tempo pop starts to each show in Moldova and Lithuania, followed immediately by ballads. This also brings us another running order fitting the classic variety show format of chopping and changing act styles and tempos throughout the entries. As Serbia ends in a frenzy then comes Hungary bringing us back down, Belarus picks the energy back up before we hit a classic big-ballad structure from Russia. This fits the patterns of Eurovision running orders over the last two years.
The only noticeable difference at the moment is that the shows appear to end on less dramatic notes. Romania both in 2013 and 2014 ended the Semi Final with performances that evokes strong love or hate reactions from many. Hungary in 2014 and Serbia in 2013 created a similar tale in the fan community who in some cases found the visual performance a little too striking. We are not aware of the full staging proposals for these entries yet but ending the Semi Finals with Georgia and Poland are not perhaps the most obvious options available to the ORF team, and would be a break from the previous philosophies.
What Makes A Good Running Order Anyway?
As many Eurovision fans know, the view is that a later running order is better for the competition. This is backed up by much research and even our own evidence delving in the statistics from last year’s competition as well. However even though we believe the running order is a significant factor in the scoring, your running order position in a Semi Final is only worth a few percentage points; a handful of extra scores on the leaderboard at the end of competition. Singing last or first is not the biggest factor to a song’s success, especially in the much smaller Eurovision Semi Finals.
Drawn 2nd last year left Latvia just seven points off qualification to the Grand Final (Photo: Ewan Spence)
At this stage we are looking for songs that stand out positively compared to the styles around them. Most casual viewers will be tuning in for the first time and will be discussing and comparing each song to the next. To do well you need to shine above the songs placed around you. This process called assimilation we have highlighted previously on ESC Insight, but with the producer-led running order chopping and changing genres all the time this is hard to find. However we pick out examples here of songs we believe could do perform better than expected, and also entries which may struggle to shine to their full potential.
Our Running Order Winners From The Semi Finals
Finland
The Finnish entry this year has been the subject of much hate and little love from the Eurovision community so far, but this running order gives this punk band a stronger chance of success. In Finland’s selection process UMK the band were drawn last in their Semi Final and second last in the craziness of the National Final itself. Being drawn in the first half meant such an ending was not possible for this show, but performing before the advert break is the next best thing. Such an act as these have a real possibility to unbalance the competition and they will create a real talking point for the viewers at home.
This is what Finland needs. It needs time after the short performance for what happened to sink in. Normal rules of assimilation don’t really work for anything this divisive but being after the generally repetitive entry from The Netherlands helps to create this a talking point. Last year Iceland and Poland were performed just before the break with high energy acts which got lots of diverse scoring from different jurors, but enough televotes to pass. Finland should be expecting a similar route to qualification at the moment.
Macedonia
The Macedonian entry this year is one of those that is going to pick up from the comparison to Estonia before it. The Estonian song is a hot favourite, but is a grittier and dirtier sound in the mid-tempo field than what Daniel brings with him to Vienna. The slightly more anthemic quality to this track compared to Estonia before it may pull a little extra energy from the crowd worked just before by Stig and Elina and give Macedonia a cresendo to end the first half on.
It’s a song that unlikely to be voted negatively down by jurors in the Contest and if a little bit of extra buzz comes across on the camera on Tuesday night a few extra televotes may sneak Macedonia into the Saturday night.
Montenegro
In the sea of ballads running through the start of Semi Final Two (made all the worse for Lithuania’s show opener) the process of assimilation is going to be magnified. San Marino’s offering of an innocent peace ode written by Ralph Siegel here is going to be dwarfed by the comparative complexity of Zeljko Joksimovic’s balladry next door to it, direct comparison is possible here and there is only one way this contest will pan out. Last year San Marino came up after a run of non-qualifiers Belgium and Moldova and then before a break as it sneaked into the Grand Final by a point. Everything was in their favour. This year expect Siegel’s child-like melodies here to only showcase Zeljko’s craftsmanship further and send Montenegro flying high.
Czech Republic
Having only scored ten points in their previous three Eurovision attempts, Czech Republic need everything swinging on their side to get a decent shot at a Saturday night performance. Not only is being drawn later in their Semi Final an obvious advantage for a handful of points, their ballad ‘Hope Never Dies‘ is at the moment going to crash through Portugal before it and add a much more powerful vocal and melody to the ballad format.
It would still be quite something for the Czech Republic to qualify, but coming off the back of Portugal and before the unpredictable hot mess that Israel is bound to be might normalise the Czech ballad as a more professional slice of entertainment to those around it.
Our Running Order Losers From The Semi Finals
Belgium
The producers likely thought that shoving in Armenia’s sentimental ballad in after Moldova blasts the show off was the correct thing to do. In Belgium’s case, now drawn no. 3, I think they would rather be given Armenia’s ‘kiss of death’ no. 2 slot for this Semi Final.
Firstly remember that although being given number two does have a bad reputation amongst not just fans but artists as well, in actual fact qualification records from no. 2 are some of the best in the Semi Finals. More importantly though had Belgium performed second it would bounce off Moldova and we would be able to directly compare ‘Rhythm Inside‘ to the other pop entry in this half of the show. A battle that Belgium would probably benefit from with the more contemporary sound they are bringing to the table. Instead Belgium is coming off the back of six singers belting their hearts out for their homeland and the downbeat urban start to Belgium’s song is taking the competition for votes in a whole new direction.
Albania
Three guitar-driven mid-tempo tracks come flooding one after the other in the back half of Semi Final One. Firstly comes in Denmark straight from the ad break bringing the show back to order with a professional and robust sounding chorus. After that comes Albania with is fractionally more delicate that both Denmark before and Romania afterwards.
Elhaida Dani is a strong vocalist but is going to need to sing the socks off ‘I’m Alive‘ to give the same impact as the more direct melodies of the similar tempo performances around her to attract the neutral voter.
Iceland
Oh dear Iceland. With a qualification record spanning every year since 2008 they have been rewarded for their successes as the sandwich point between two early favourites Azerbaijan and Sweden. The ending to ‘Hour Of The Wolf‘ is going to be huge and little barefoot Maria Olafs may appear a little timid to the wall of noise just before her. The break into the pop chorus will bring it back to life, but that life energy is just going to be hoovered up by Sweden taking the stage afterwards and showing the viewers exactly what a pop performance needs at Eurovision.
The only saving grace for Iceland is the advert break directly after it performs. However with one extra song in Semi Final Two and no Finland performing there are already four and a half minutes less for broadcast time in the Thursday show compared to Tuesday’s Semi Final One. They will not be dawdling around to introduce Måns and his stick-figure projection onto the stage floor and Iceland really needs that break to be as long as possible.
What do you think? Have we picked out the songs you think will benefit or fall from the running order? Is the running order presented today fair for all contestants? Drop us the thoughts below and let’s see what you think.
Not to sure about our draw ( Ireland ), 2nd place has a decent qualification record but loads of people are saying its bad ( for some reason) tbh it isn’t great but in the first half i don’t really think there is a great draw and the only significant position i think is performing 1st ( and thats not a good place) hopefully being followed by San Marino and Montenegro will help it.
I thought i was the only person who thought Iceland had a bad draw.
I left Ireland out because it may come across as a calm oasis around the songs before and after. As you say San Marino helps and I think Lithuania could appear a little frantic. Need to wait and see for the rehearsals to judge this I think.
No. 2 sounds bad from Eurovision tradition and the battle is more on a PR point of view to focus away from that negative loop.
Yeah i understand, tbh i don’t really think Ireland are a winner in this but most certainly not a loser either i don’t really think the draw did them much harm. especially when you look at last year as you mentioned above Latvia, they were most peoples bottom 5 leading up to the contest and then despite being followed by heavy weights such as sweden,ukraine,azerbaijan and then the novelty entry from Iceland ( and thats all just first half) latvia ended up only 7 short and actually qualifying on the tele vote but as expected being tanked by the jury. But i do think Ireland kind of kills off any remote hope San Marino had because the only thing they had going for them was that they were teens and they might get a (awww) vote but Ireland also having a teen takes that vote somewhat. but as you said until we see rehearsals nothing can be predicted accurately!
Several things to say:
1. I remember Ewan saying, last year, that Latvia and Israel have increased their chances of qualifying, because they were positioned as 2nd in the running order. We know what happened in the end. So it can go either way.
2. We don’t know how Israel will sound or look live. Israel track record on not getting the staging correct can’t be ignored,but calling it an hot mess before even seeing it live, is prejudice. Unpredictable, yes. Hot mess not yet.
3. And About Israel – In 2012 and 2013 they were positioned in number 10 and did not qualify. One would have think that ORF and the EBU would have given them a much later draw,so they might have a greater chance of qualifying, yet they are now positioned on number 9th.Somewhere in the middle, where your chances of qualifying are less than average. Israel will have to get it right and hope the song will distinguished itself from what around it, in a good way, if they want to have chance of qualifying.
@Shai
About last year, Israel song “Same Heart” was a song that was not suited for such an early draw and with 2 Very jury friendly songs in Malta and Norway it just made it even harder. When you look at Latvia when you consider what followed them and the fact that they weren’t really rated by the ESC fan community and the fact it was Latvia ( with a bad qualifying record) it still managed to qualify in the Televote and was 7 points away from qualifying.
1. Not to fracture the team here, but I believe Ewan’s sample size for 2nd being a good running order position was too small. Taking the data in bigger chunks rather than individual positions and you do see slightly better results later in the running order, but it’s only going to account for a few points here or there.
2. Up against what is before it, Israel is going to look like and sound like a hot mess in comparison. To be honest that’s not a bad thing in this example, especially with a song playing up to that image and making it obvious it is trying to be different (‘Do you like my dancing?’).
@Esceire,
I can’t counter you on that. When the draw of 2014 was made known, I thought that between the 3 strong openers, someone would have been ignored,and I thought it would be Israel. sadly I was correct and it was Israel that were ignored. One wonder what would have happen if Israel would have been performing later on the first half of the semi in 2014
@Ben,
In the last 2 years, and maybe even longer(at the era of 2 semis)-the qualifications numbers are- 4 of the last 6 songs performed qualified.(Maybe something for you to write an article about)
And as for Israel-it is different, for better or for worse.
Thanks! It’s always fun to read other people projections.
I agree with the point that the song performed before and after is quite a significant factor on how people enjoy the actual song.
For example, Latvia’s powerful baland may benefit being after Israel’s up-tempo song.
I do find this all very interesting, but I think that the semi finals are a different game to the finals.
The people watching a more likely to be fans, and vote accordingly. Also it is a much smaller pool to be swimming in.
Every year I find that there is someone I am surprised that qualified and someone I am dissappointed in. Generally speaking good songs performed well will qualify. Same Heart from Israel was not a great song nor was it performed well. It had some champions who loudly supported it on all the websites.
No one saw that no contestants from the Yugosphere would qualify in 2013, despite having each others support.
I will wait till after I have heard how the rehearsals go before I make my own predictions.