With the announcement of the running order for this year’s Grand Final, Sam Ross and Ewan Spence take a quick look at the order to see which countries have been helped, and which are hindered.
Putting aside the issues of introducing human bias into the system with a producer led running order (which we at ESC Insight disagree with, but can sympathise with TV production teams on short term contracts wanting to exert some control over a live show), t.
That means you have fast songs following slow songs, contrasts in vocal tones, in colour, in staging, and in contest. Thats great for TV, but it’s not how people actually assess songs.
Looking for the moments and the beats where styles and elements match up gives you the points where people make their decisions on the ‘best’ song (). If you have comparison, you can judge two songs that are next to each other.
That’s opposite to the generally held principle of contrast assimilation that the EBU has stressed in running order discussions.
It is these connected moments that will allow us to find the winners and losers in the announced order for Saturday’s Grand Final.
Winners
Finland: Something Better, by Softengine.
Coming back from the commercial break, viewers will see the slow pace of Sweden in spot 13, the potential Hot Mess Brigade of France, Russia, and Italy in 14-16, and the sweet, but light sorbet of Slovenia in spot 17. Compared to what comes before it, Finland seems to come in at a bit of a sweet spot as they sing 18th. Kicking the energy back into high gear with a polished stage show, Softengine may stand in stark contrast to the handful of entries that came before them. ‘Something Better’ has an anthemic, accessible, heart-pumping quality that will get audiences engaged again in the proceedings. With a moderately late draw that gives them memorability without risking “viewer fatigue”, this might be a bit of a dark horse and may have the ability to do what the similarly-structured “New Tomorrow” couldn’t do from 3rd position in 2011.
Softengine will learn to open their eyes before May
The Netherlands: Calm Before The Storm, by The Common Linnetts.
Denmark has a cute yet young performer, with one too many gimmicks as the banner unfurls to remind everyone who is is. The audience will be revved up, the ear will be cued in to complicated and fun lyrics, and then Waylon and Ilse will slide up, show Basim how it’s really done, and in the process bring this horribly accessible coffee pot of Americana to a European audience. With ‘Maybe’ after the song, the comparison is an easy one to make. Waylon and Ilse are going to look like Kenny Rogers and Dolly Parton compared to Valentina and Ralph. The staging compares wonderfully, the vocals are a clear win from the songs on either side, and in terms of running order are the biggest winners from the draw.
Austria: Rise Like A Phoenix, by Conchita Würst.
The DR production team must have been hoping for Conchita to draw out second half. I’m sure she would have closed the show (in Molly’s place) and brought the house down. As it is the hot mess of Poland and the messy and chaotic staging and singing of Greece are going to invite an incredibly positive comparison to the cinematic styling of Conchita – the vocals are in a class of their own, and the overall impression is one of control and restrained decadence.
Yes it might be fun for Graham Norton to go Conchita there, and now ‘Is It Right?’ but the weaker vocals of Elaiza with the forgettable stage presence forces the viewer to agree that there is nothing quite like Conchita Wurst in the final.
Slightly weakened by the first half draw, I think Austria and the Netherlands are going to be the ones to watch, and the ones with the best opportunities in the running order.
Losers
The United Kingdom: Children of the Universe, by Molly
On the face of it placing the United Kingdom, with a pyro curtain, anthemic nature, and shout it out loud chorus – into last place is the right move to make. ou could even argue it should be a winner!
And it would be if this was a pure variety show line-up. You would save the best till last, you would save the entry with hype and the largest TV audience to the end. But the voter fatigue at home, almost two hours into the Contest, will be incredibly high. I doubt that people will keep an open mind of all 26 Contestants, and with Valentina Monetta singing directly before the United Kingdom, Molly will have to contend with a tired stadium, a fatigued audience at home, and only one p c comparison to use as a guide.
Molly (UK 2014)
That’s a tough ask for any performer, but Molly has just over a day to get used to this new role and the positioning and weaker elements around her forcing a comparison to Monetta may be enough to dampen the audience enthusiasm for first place into a Top Five finish (which I would have taken next week, fact fans).
Perhaps DR couldn’t resist “power to the people” right before opening the televote lines?
Romania: Miracle, by Paula Selling & Ovi.
Norway is a little diamond of a song, and Carl Espne is growing with maturity every time he sings. And then Romania’s Billy Joel with a Badger on his Head pops up in his circular piano. ROmania are going to be seen as an almost novelty act next to ‘Silent Storm’.
Following Ovi and Paula, you have both Armenia (a slow-to-fast number which is more lyrically and compositionally fascinating), and Montenegro (staying subtle, wbut with far more honest energy and passion).
Hokey props and cheap tricks are no match for powerful lyrics and accomplished storytellers, neither of which should be regarded as a ‘Miracle’.
And even if Romania manages to stay in your mind, here comes the Poland/Greece/Austria mind-bleach to stop you playing with fire.
This piano worked…, Paula Seling and Ovi
Can We Sleep Now?
These are simply the thoughts of the excited, yet vaguely sleep-deprived ESC Insight team (after all, it is nearly a quarter to three in the morning here in Copenhagen). As press, fans, and delegations pour over this new information, we’d love to know what you think, as well. We’ve got a few days before our hypotheses will be tested, so what patterns, warning signs, or portends of good fortune do you see in the tea leaves of 2014’s Running Order?
I agree entirely that The Netherlands are big winners from the running order. It will work great. Unsurprisingly, Sweden got a nice favor from the producers being placed between Germany and France.
Another loser, I think, is Armenia. Running after Romania, an up-tempo number that is exactly what you’d expect from Eurovision minus the stupid special effect, there’s no real differentiation. Then after it comes a simple, male ballad from Montenegro with an ice skater (sorry, Ewan; the ice skater works!) that will stand out and be the one that’s remembered from that block.
I’m not sure who it’s good or bad for, but I don’t like putting Norway right after Iceland.
I’m well past 24 hours awake, correcting more typos than words, but before I crash–
1. Where are the actual breaks?
2. I don’t think assimilation works the same going backwards.
actually, looking at this line up, I think Spain is a big winner in this.
Ultimately would have loved Molly and Ruth to swap places, but I can see Spain as top 5 material now surrounded by other songs going nowhere fast.
Agreed now it’s morning 🙂 but maybe not quite a winning winner
Break after 12
I think it’s quite clear that the contest fixers wanted to keep the 60th Show in the West somehow. Sure the 1st/2nd half draws didn’t help, but pretty much all of the East European songs have been buried in the order. Never in my wildest dreams would I have predicted Ukraine, Belarus and Azerbaijan to be the show openers!
This is Hungary, Malta and Netherlands contest to lose now, and to be honest, I’d be happy with any of those 3.
One thing I would say in regards to it being bad to be on last due to viewers fatigue why then are people saying how brilliant 24 is for the Netherlands? What happens to people in this space of what 10 mins roughly?
Yeah, for all we know, the figures on Hungary could say it won its semi… And from that position… Well, Budapest is a wonderful and cheap city!
Yay! Break after 12! Let’s kill Sannas chances!
Yeah, Hungary is the one I feel has benefitted most from the draw too. It’s not screaming “winner”.. but it’s kinda quietly whispering it from 21…
Glad Finland have such a good lead-in, given that they’re my favourites this year along with the Netherlands. Really feeling meh about Molly being on last.
Also glad to see so many of the overrated favourites in the first half (cough, Sweden, Austria, Armenia, Romania) – this draw has made Saturday such a wide open final and I can’t wait to see who eventually takes it!
Netherlands are only going to be on stage about 8 minutes before Molly, so how can they be a winner and UK a loser?
People are worried because Ireland came dead last in 2013 – which would have happened anyway, because they only just sneaked through the semis. Other recent last to perform entries have done at least as well as were expected or better. A real contender for the win just hasn’t performed last in many years.
*If* the UK can win, we can do it from 26th. I’d rather 26th than 14th-16th where we might have got lost.
Last isn’t a killer. It has happened that the last performer has been pretty poor/not a contender, and people are assuming that they didn’t do well because they performed last. But look back at the past ten years – only twice has a real contender sung last – Denmark in 2010 and Norway in 2008, and both times they came in the top 5.
So performing last won’t hurt a good song and a real contender. It only hurts weak songs that people don’t care about or are performed poorly.
Interesting…I for one have never thought the running order will have any impact at all on the winning entry. It might have an impact on lower placings but the winner needs to score point from nearly all the voting countries and will stand out as the most popular song regardless of the running order.
I know you won’t agree with me though 🙂
But who will win this year? It seems to be a very open race to the flag. I don’t dare to guess even if I do have some personal favourites 🙂
Take care and let the show begin!!! Oh no, it’s only Friday today 😉
As always, wherever you are, lots of love from Sweden!
I don’t think Molly is a loser at all in fact performing last will help to stick in peoples minds. 26 songs is a lot to remember and presumably the voting will begin right after her performance. Ruth for Spain is also a winner if she nails that vocal a top 5 placing could be on the cards. Surprised Spain is so low on the betting.
After having seen the first dress rehearsal I would say that last place is NOT a bad thing for the UK at all, and actually is a pretty perfect closer to the contest. Sure, the song performing 26th came dead last in 2013, but I think that is more to do with the fact that there were so many uptempo songs last year and it was a pretty poor performance, whereas Molly is a different type of song altogether.
Good analysis on the running order here Ewan
https://escnation.com/mbnews/viewmsg.php?id=3463403
I think DR has succeeded in making a schedule that avoids extreme predictability as well as one that should play out as an exciting show, which are different things.
A few favourites are slightly damped, and a few others are a given a chance, but nothing to overwhelm fair presentation.
Sweden must be chuffed that DR heeded their complaint and made extra time to check their lighting. 😉
The hosts should resist saying “power to the people” in relation to voting if they don’t want flak over it.